"We helped over 100,000 people make advances in jobs and education and in starting and growing businesses" in 2015 alone.
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
A Success Story
According to this news story:
Tuesday, September 27, 2016
Question about the Exodus
Over at Sic et Non, Michael Hoggan asks the question:
If we take the reference to Israel in the Merneptah stele as indicative of Israel being established in the land of Canaan, then the Exodus would fit somewhere in the middle of the reign of Ramses II (conventionally about 1280-1220 BC). There are other scenarios that can be entertained, but this is the simplest.
Interesting, I remember reading about the possibility that Abraham wasn't from Mesopotamia several years ago. Since Dr. Gee places Abraham in the 2000-1800 time period, I wonder when he dates the Exodus.Actually, I place Abraham a bit lower in time. The events in Abraham chapter 1 fit best into the reigns of Sesostris III and Amenemhet III. Conventionally that is dated about 1860-1800 BC. This means that Abraham is dated somewhere in the 1850-1750 BC range.
If we take the reference to Israel in the Merneptah stele as indicative of Israel being established in the land of Canaan, then the Exodus would fit somewhere in the middle of the reign of Ramses II (conventionally about 1280-1220 BC). There are other scenarios that can be entertained, but this is the simplest.
Labels:
Exodus
Monday, September 26, 2016
German vs. American Honesty
Last week in Priesthood meeting the topic was honesty. The instructor gave, as example of dishonesty, when an American is asked, "How are you?" and answers, "Fine." Americans see this as being polite. Germans see this as being dishonest or at least insincere. (The same word, Ehrlichkeit, is used for both honesty and sincerity.) Many American value politeness above honesty. Many Germans value honesty above politeness. While I do not want to advocate rudeness, I do note that I can recall more lessons on honesty than politeness.
Labels:
Honesty
Sunday, September 4, 2016
Just a Nice Old Man who Tells Stories?
A couple of months ago I heard one of these Mormon Studies scholars refer to President Thomas S. Monson as "a nice old man who tells stories" but went on to complain that his messages had no importance. This seems to me at least a debatable proposition. So, I have assembled some of President Monson's messages over the last year and a half.
In these messages, we find specific counsel and, in some cases, repeated warnings. Many of these themes were repeated by President Uchtdorf this morning. Now I understand that some of these counsels will not be popular in certain quarters. Some, for example, might want to impress others with their learning and might be offended that President Monson has pointed out that theirs is an inferior goal. They might wish to dismiss him as a nice old man who just tells stories. Yes, he tells stories, but he does much more than just that. To me his counsel is wise and deserves to be heeded.
I plead with parents and leaders of our youth to help them stand firm for truth and righteousness. Help open wide to their view the gates of learning, of understanding, and of service in the kingdom of God. Build within them strength to resist the temptations of the world. Give them the will to walk in virtue and faith, to be prayerful, and to look to heaven as their constant anchor. (First Presidency Message August 2015)
Let us take most seriously the callings, the responsibilities, and the duties which come with the priesthood we hold.(General Conference April 2015)
Before you put yourself and your priesthood in jeopardy by venturing into places or participating in activities which are not worthy of you or of that priesthood, pause to consider the consequences. Remember who you are and what God expects you to become. You are a child of promise. You are a man of might. You are a son of God. (General Conference April 2016)
My brothers and sisters, in our lives we will have temptations; we will have trials and challenges. As we go to the temple, as we remember the covenants we make there, we will be better able to overcome those temptations and to bear our trials. (General Conference April 2015)
There is yet time this year to extend the helping hand, the loving heart, and the willing spirit—in other words, to follow the example set by our Savior and to serve as He would have us serve. (First Presidency Message December 2015)
To be an example of faith means that we trust in the Lord and in His word. It means that we possess and that we nourish the beliefs that will guide our thoughts and our actions. Our faith in the Lord Jesus Christ and in our Heavenly Father will influence all that we do. Amidst the confusion of our age, the conflicts of conscience, and the turmoil of daily living, an abiding faith becomes an anchor to our lives. Remember that faith and doubt cannot exist in the same mind at the same time, for one will dispel the other. I reiterate what we have been told repeatedly—that in order to gain and to keep the faith we need, it is essential that we read and study and ponder the scriptures. Communication with our Heavenly Father through prayer is vital. We cannot afford to neglect these things, for the adversary and his hosts are relentlessly seeking for a chink in our armor, a lapse in our faithfulness. (General Conference October 2015)
May we choose to build up within ourselves a great and powerful faith which will be our most effective defense against the designs of the adversary—a real faith, the kind of faith which will sustain us and will bolster our desire to choose the right. Without such faith, we go nowhere. With it, we can accomplish our goals. (General Conference April 2016)
In the Church, the goal of gospel teaching is not to pour information into the minds of God’s children, whether at home, in the classroom, or in the mission field. It is not to show how much the parent, teacher, or missionary knows. Nor is it merely to increase knowledge about the Savior and His Church.
The basic goal of teaching is to help the sons and daughters of Heavenly Father return to His presence and enjoy eternal life with Him. To do this, gospel teaching must encourage them along the path of daily discipleship and sacred covenants. The aim is to inspire individuals to think about, feel about, and then do something about living gospel principles. The objective is to develop faith in the Lord Jesus Christ and to become converted to His gospel. (First Presidency Message March 2016)
Disregard for the commandments has opened the way for what I consider to be the plagues of our day. They include the plague of permissiveness, the plague of pornography, the plague of drugs, the plague of immorality, and the plague of abortion, to name just a few. The scriptures tell us that the adversary is “the founder of all these things.” We know that he is “the father of all lies, to deceive and to blind men.”
I plead with you to avoid anything that will deprive you of your happiness here in mortality and eternal life in the world to come. With his deceptions and lies, the adversary will lead you down a slippery slope to your destruction if you allow him to do so. You will likely be on that slippery slope before you even realize that there is no way to stop. You have heard the messages of the adversary. He cunningly calls: Just this once won’t matter; everyone is doing it; don’t be old-fashioned; times have changed; it can’t hurt anyone; your life is yours to live. The adversary knows us, and he knows the temptations which will be difficult for us to ignore. How vital it is that we exercise constant vigilance in order to avoid giving in to such lies and temptations.
Great courage will be required as we remain faithful and true amid the ever-increasing pressures and insidious influences with which we are surrounded and which distort the truth, tear down the good and the decent, and attempt to substitute the man-made philosophies of the world. If the commandments had been written by man, then to change them by inclination or legislation or by any other means would be the prerogative of man. The commandments, however, were God-given. Using our agency, we can set them aside. We cannot, however, change them, just as we cannot change the consequences which come from disobeying and breaking them.(General Conference October 2015)
Some find it difficult to withstand the mocking and unsavory remarks of foolish ones who ridicule chastity, honesty, and obedience to God’s commands. The world has ever belittled adherence to principle. When Noah was instructed to build an ark, the foolish populace looked at the cloudless sky and then scoffed and jeered—until the rain came.
On the American continent long centuries ago, people doubted, disputed, and disobeyed until the fire consumed Zarahemla, the earth covered Moronihah, and the water engulfed Moroni. Jeering, mocking, ribaldry, and sin were no more. They had been replaced by sullen silence, dense darkness. The patience of God had expired, His timetable fulfilled. (First Presidency Message July 2016)
We will all face fear, experience ridicule, and meet opposition. Let us—all of us—have the courage to defy the consensus, the courage to stand for principle. Courage, not compromise, brings the smile of God’s approval. . . .
[May] you have the courage to stand firm for truth and righteousness. Because the trend in society today is away from the values and principles the Lord has given us, you will almost certainly be called upon to defend that which you believe. Unless the roots of your testimony are firmly planted, it will be difficult for you to withstand the ridicule of those who challenge your faith. (First Presidency Message April 2015)
In these messages, we find specific counsel and, in some cases, repeated warnings. Many of these themes were repeated by President Uchtdorf this morning. Now I understand that some of these counsels will not be popular in certain quarters. Some, for example, might want to impress others with their learning and might be offended that President Monson has pointed out that theirs is an inferior goal. They might wish to dismiss him as a nice old man who just tells stories. Yes, he tells stories, but he does much more than just that. To me his counsel is wise and deserves to be heeded.
Labels:
Prophets
Sunday, August 14, 2016
Today's Quote
From Russell M. Nelson, "Protect the Spiritual Power Line" (October 1984):
"Learning can be misused! A sharp mind, misdirected, can cut into that line of spiritual power. Some 'learned' souls delight in leading others astray, all in the so-called name of learning. Years later their victims may realize that they have climbed their ladder of learning, only to find it leaning against the wrong wall."
Saturday, August 6, 2016
Today's Quote
I witnessed something yesterday that reminded me of a quote by Peter Novick:
"There is nothing more tedious than the spectacle of disgruntled authors complaining that they have been misrepresented or, even worse, whimpering that they have been misunderstood. Academic authors, above all others, should be immunized from such concerns, after years of seeing the versions of our lectures we get back in blue books at the end of the term."
(Peter Novick, "My Correct Views on Everything," American Historical Review 96/3 (1991): 699.)
I have often thought I have been misunderstood. Sometimes I have even felt deliberately misunderstood. When that occurs I often remember this quote.
Alas, authors who pretend to be academic but never teach classes have no such immunization. Such immunization also avails nothing to narcissists.
Tuesday, August 2, 2016
A Metaphor for Apostasy
Psalm 73 in the Septuagint (where it is numbered Psalm 72) contains an unusual metaphor for apostasy:
οτι ιδου οι μακρυνοντες εαυτους απο σου απολουνται εξωλεθρευσας παντα τον πορνευοντα απο σου
For behold those who remove themselves from thee are lost; thou shalt destroy all those who fornicate from thee (Psalm 72:27 LXX).
This is actually a fairly close translation of the Hebrew. In the minds of the ancient Israelites immorality and apostasy are closely linked (see also Hosea).
Labels:
Psalms,
Septuagint
Monday, August 1, 2016
The Bitter Cup
In Matthew 26:39 Jesus said:
Πάτερ μου, εἰ δυνατόν ἐστιν, παρελθάτω ἀπ’ ἐμοῦ τὸ ποτήριον τοῦτο πλὴν οὐχ ὡς ἐγὼ θέλω ἀλλ’ ὡς σύ.
The King James translation gives this as:
O my Father, if it be possible, let this cup pass from me: nevertheless not as I will, but as thou wilt.
Because the cup is mentioned by Jesus, the expression is familiar, but where does the cup come from? Cups do figure into the Passover ceremony but not in such a way that it makes sense in the way that Jesus uses it.
The same term, cup (ποτήριον), shows up in Psalm 74:9 (Psalm 75:8 in the KJV):
ὅτι ποτήριον ἐν χειρὶ κυρίου οἴνου ἀκράτου πλῆρες κεράσματος καὶ ἔκλινεν ἐκ τούτου εἰς τοῦτο πλὴν ὁ τρυγίας αὐτοῦ οὐκ ἐξεκενώθη πίονται πάντες οἱ ἁμαρτωλοὶ τῆς γῆς
For a cup of undiluted wine is in the Lord's hand, full of mixture and he tips it from this to this but its dregs will not be poured out, all the sinners of the earth shall drink them.
So the reference to drinking the cup seems to refer back to the cup that the Psalmist sang about, the cup of the wrath of God directed at sinners.
Labels:
Matthew,
Psalms,
Septuagint
Thursday, July 7, 2016
An Ad for Addicts
Just in case you, or someone you know, is addicted to Ethiopia's most famous food, you can watch this video here.
One of the more interesting things to me is that this particular delicacy was mainly used by Muslims through the Middle Ages:
Why was coffee a Muslim drink. One of the main reasons was that coffee did not contain alcohol (like beer or wine) and so you could not get drunk from it, it required boiling so it killed the germs in the water, and it had its own chemicals with neurological side effects.
So coffee has always been prohibited by some Christian sect or other throughout its entire history.
One of the more interesting things to me is that this particular delicacy was mainly used by Muslims through the Middle Ages:
At one time coffee was consumed by Oromos and Muslims only. The clergy condemned the use of coffee. However, at a later date coffe won the palates and hearts of even the strictest of the priesthood.
Coffee did not become an intrinsic part of Ethiopian culture until the 1880s when Menelik [II, Emperor of Ethiopia from 1889 to 1913] himself drank it. At that time the Egyptian Bishop of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, Abune Matewos [bishop from 1881 to 1926], dismissed the clergy's contention that it was a Muslim drink.
(Daniel J. Mesfin, Exotic Ethiopian Cooking [Falls Church, VA: Ethiopian Cookbook Enterprises, 1993], p. xxvii.)Abune Matewos, was born and educated in Egypt. He may not have understood the local Ethiopian Christian aversion to coffee; he certainly did not share it.
Why was coffee a Muslim drink. One of the main reasons was that coffee did not contain alcohol (like beer or wine) and so you could not get drunk from it, it required boiling so it killed the germs in the water, and it had its own chemicals with neurological side effects.
So coffee has always been prohibited by some Christian sect or other throughout its entire history.
Labels:
Word of Wisdom
Friday, July 1, 2016
Some Belated Kudos
I just noticed that my friend, Gary Gillum, is on the advisory board for Oxford Biblical Studies Online. That is great news. I have known Gary about thirty years. He is a wonderful man with an encyclopedic knowledge of a wide range of subjects. He has quietly produced a wide variety of good work. I remember as an undergraduate extensively using two bibliographic works that he had prepared. I am glad that even though Gary has retired that he is still productive. What a coup for Oxford to get him involved in this project!
Thursday, June 30, 2016
Jürgen von Beckerath (1920-2016)
This came in from Angelika Lohnwasser:
I would like to highlight an article of von Beckerath's which I have found extremely helpful. Jürgen von Beckerath, "Die Lesung von "Regierungsjahr": ein neuer Vorschlag," Zeitschrift für ägyptische Sprache und Altertumskunde 95/2 (1969): 88-91. In this article von Beckerath establishes that the reading of the regnal year group is ḥsbt, not ḥ3t-zp or rnpt-zp. This reading was confirmed in Kaul-Theodor Zauzich, "Das topographische Onomastikon im P. Kairo 31169," Göttinger Miszellen 99 (1987): 83-91.
It was also von Beckerath who pointed out that we really have no evidence that the Egyptians knew about the Sothic cycle before the Ptolemaic period.
It has been at least a decade since von Beckerath was active in the field, but he made some important contributions.
Prof. em. Dr. Jürgen von Beckerath, 1920-2016I have found von Beckerath's Handbuch der ägyptischen Königsnamen extremely useful (I was using it just yesterday).
Am 26.6.2016 verstarb in seinem Haus in Schlehdorf/Bayern der frühere Direktor des Instituts für Ägyptologie und Koptologie der Westfälischen Wilhelms-Universität Münster, Prof. Dr. Jürgen von Beckerath im Alter von 96 Jahren. Er war der zweite Vertreter der Ägyptologie in Münster und amtierte von 1970 bis 1985. Seine Karriere verlief nach früher „klassischem“ Muster: Promotion in München 1948, 1952 Reisestipendium nach Ägypten (als erster deutscher Wissenschaftler nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg), 1955 Stipendium der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft, später Assistent am Ägyptischen Museum in München, 1958 Lehrauftrag für Ägyptologie in München, Habilitation ebendort 1963, 1966/67 Associate Professor an der Columbia University in New York, 1970 Ruf nach Münster als Nachfolger von Walther Wolf. Chronologie und Geschichte des Alten Ägypten waren seine hauptsächlichen Forschungsschwerpunkte. Neben zahlreichen einschlägigen Artikeln (der letzte aus dem Jahre 2003) gehören drei Bücher zu seinen wichtigsten Veröffentlichungen: Untersuchungen zur politischen Geschichte der Zweiten Zwischenzeit in Ägypten (Habilitationsschrift), 1965; die beiden folgenden sind Handbücher geworden: Chronologie des pharaonischen Ägypten. Die Zeitbestimmung der ägyptischen Geschichte von der Vorzeit bis 332 v. Chr., 1997; Handbuch der ägyptischen Königsnamen, 1984, 1999.
I would like to highlight an article of von Beckerath's which I have found extremely helpful. Jürgen von Beckerath, "Die Lesung von "Regierungsjahr": ein neuer Vorschlag," Zeitschrift für ägyptische Sprache und Altertumskunde 95/2 (1969): 88-91. In this article von Beckerath establishes that the reading of the regnal year group is ḥsbt, not ḥ3t-zp or rnpt-zp. This reading was confirmed in Kaul-Theodor Zauzich, "Das topographische Onomastikon im P. Kairo 31169," Göttinger Miszellen 99 (1987): 83-91.
It was also von Beckerath who pointed out that we really have no evidence that the Egyptians knew about the Sothic cycle before the Ptolemaic period.
It has been at least a decade since von Beckerath was active in the field, but he made some important contributions.
Labels:
Obituaries
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
A Lutheran on the Trinity
Hans Fiene is a Lutheran pastor in Illinois. I am disappointed with his anti-Mormon tendencies but I appreciate his thoughtfulness. In this video, however, he makes a point that I have often heard my friend, Lou Midgley, make:
From my perspective, the formulations of the creeds tend to be incoherent gibberish, and I appreciate a good Lutheran pastor being able to articulate this. Perhaps there is some common ground we can build on.
You cannot make a popular explanation of the Christian Trinity of the creeds without falling into heresy.
From my perspective, the formulations of the creeds tend to be incoherent gibberish, and I appreciate a good Lutheran pastor being able to articulate this. Perhaps there is some common ground we can build on.
Saturday, June 18, 2016
How Many Books in a Preexilic Israelite Personal Library?
So how many books did the typical preexilic Israelite own? By books, we mean literary works or works of knowledge, not things like tax receipts and property deeds.
If I had to guess, I think that it would be pretty safe to say that the mode was zero. That means that a majority of ancient Israelites could not read and did not personally own any books. But some percentage of ancient Israelites could read. Some percentage of them did own literary texts or works of knowledge. Again, the absolute percentage need not be large, but chances are that if you were privileged enough to read, you probably wanted to possess something to read.
Unfortunately, we cannot answer that question, but we can get some idea by looking at ownership of literary works in the Neo-Assyrian empire. SAA VII 49-51 are three lists of tablets owned by various individuals in the Neo-Assyrian empire. The texts are somewhat fragmentary, but they typically list the works and how many tablets in the work, and a summary of the number of tablets accompanied by the name of the individual. Taking the entries where the total number of tablets owned is more or less intact in all of the texts, we get the following list (in ascending order by tablet):
I would expect ancient Israelite personal libraries to show a similar spread. Some would only own a work or two. Some would have several. What is somewhat surprising is that multiple individuals had extensive libraries, the equivalent of dozens of scrolls. We should suppose that ancient Israel would be the same.
It would be nicer to have a larger sample size. It would be nice if we had equivalent lists from Israel. But based on the information we do have, highly literate individuals with large libraries are known from pre-exilic Israelite times.
If I had to guess, I think that it would be pretty safe to say that the mode was zero. That means that a majority of ancient Israelites could not read and did not personally own any books. But some percentage of ancient Israelites could read. Some percentage of them did own literary texts or works of knowledge. Again, the absolute percentage need not be large, but chances are that if you were privileged enough to read, you probably wanted to possess something to read.
Unfortunately, we cannot answer that question, but we can get some idea by looking at ownership of literary works in the Neo-Assyrian empire. SAA VII 49-51 are three lists of tablets owned by various individuals in the Neo-Assyrian empire. The texts are somewhat fragmentary, but they typically list the works and how many tablets in the work, and a summary of the number of tablets accompanied by the name of the individual. Taking the entries where the total number of tablets owned is more or less intact in all of the texts, we get the following list (in ascending order by tablet):
- Aplaya owned 1 tablet
- Mushezib-Nabu owned 1 tablet
- Tabni owned 2 tablets
- Nabu-balassu-iqbi owned [x]+2 tablets
- Nabu-shum-[. . .] owned [1]5 tablets
- Assur-mukin-pale'a owned [1]8 tablets
- Shamash-eriba owned 28 tablets
- Nabu-shakin-shulmi owned [x]+37 tablets
- [...] owned 100+[x] tablets
- Arraba owned 185 tablets
- Nabu-nadin-apli owned 188 tablets
- Nabu-[. . .] owned 435 tablets
I would expect ancient Israelite personal libraries to show a similar spread. Some would only own a work or two. Some would have several. What is somewhat surprising is that multiple individuals had extensive libraries, the equivalent of dozens of scrolls. We should suppose that ancient Israel would be the same.
It would be nicer to have a larger sample size. It would be nice if we had equivalent lists from Israel. But based on the information we do have, highly literate individuals with large libraries are known from pre-exilic Israelite times.
Friday, June 17, 2016
More on the Gospel of Jesus's Wife Forgery
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
Some Perils of Mathematical Modeling
Mathematical models can be great. They do, however, have some
limitations. Suppose, for example, that you are trying to predict some
data that you suspect has some mathematical relationship and you want to
know the future behavior. A mathematical model might be useful to
predict the future results of the data. Your predictive abilities will
only be as good as the model (or formula) that you are using.
Presumably, if your model accounts for past data, it should work for
future data as well. We'll keep this fairly simple.
Lets say that you start with an initial condition and it starts at zero. The next data point to come out is a one. So at x = 0, y = 0 and x=1, y=1. This gives us a nice formula: x = y. We are ready to predict the future. Our guess is that when x = 2, y =2. Our graph of the function looks like this:
This provides nice steady increase. If it is a graph of your investments, you will not be getting rich very quick, but you might not be getting poor either. If it is global temperatures, it might cause some concern. If it is crop yields per square meter, then it is steady and predictable.
But when x =2 comes out, it turns out that y = 0. Our prediction was off by 2. Our graph comparing our prediction with actual results looks like this:
This looks like a simple problem to fix. We simply change our equation to y = -x^2 + 2x. This equation also works for the first three values. Our graph comparing our prediction with actual results now looks like this:
Those curves are pretty close. We seem to be on the right track. Let's expand our prediction graph and predict what is going to happen in the future:
We predict that the next point on the graph will be -3. It looks as though the graph is going increasingly downward. If this is your return on investment, then it looks like you better get out of the market now. If this is global temperatures, then stock up on winter clothes.
In fact, the next point is -1. Again, we are off by 2. Out graph comparing our prediction with actual results looks like this:
This is a not so easy fix. We change our equation to y = (x^3)/3 - 2x^2 + 8x/3. This gives us the following graph:
This is not exact but it is close. If we look down the road, we can predict the following:
So if this is our investments, we should just ride it out because things look better down the road. If it is global temperatures, then hang on because things will get a lot hotter really quick.
When the next number comes in, it comes in as 0, exactly as our model predicted:
Surely, we are on the right track.
The next number, however, comes in as 1 rather then the 5 our model predicted.
Something is wrong again. If we look at our various model graphs, we can see that they end up going all over the place:
Clearly, while each of these graphs works for a bit, they all fail in the end. They all end up flying off on a tangent. This is even more clear when we look at the long term trajectories:
All of these graphs were based on the actual data, but they differ markedly in their projections (all of which turn out to be wrong in the long term). Remember that the extreme models accounted for almost the same range of data, but after a point made widely divergent predictions.
So, one take away is that the models, at some point, break down. We could make the models much more complicated and account for the first twenty points but they would then still go wildly wrong. The general point would remain. If you are looking at a fluctuating phenomenon and suddenly your model becomes monotonically increasing or decreasing (that is, it stops fluctuating) then that is the point where your model probably has broken down.
Lets say that you start with an initial condition and it starts at zero. The next data point to come out is a one. So at x = 0, y = 0 and x=1, y=1. This gives us a nice formula: x = y. We are ready to predict the future. Our guess is that when x = 2, y =2. Our graph of the function looks like this:
This provides nice steady increase. If it is a graph of your investments, you will not be getting rich very quick, but you might not be getting poor either. If it is global temperatures, it might cause some concern. If it is crop yields per square meter, then it is steady and predictable.
But when x =2 comes out, it turns out that y = 0. Our prediction was off by 2. Our graph comparing our prediction with actual results looks like this:
This looks like a simple problem to fix. We simply change our equation to y = -x^2 + 2x. This equation also works for the first three values. Our graph comparing our prediction with actual results now looks like this:
Those curves are pretty close. We seem to be on the right track. Let's expand our prediction graph and predict what is going to happen in the future:
We predict that the next point on the graph will be -3. It looks as though the graph is going increasingly downward. If this is your return on investment, then it looks like you better get out of the market now. If this is global temperatures, then stock up on winter clothes.
In fact, the next point is -1. Again, we are off by 2. Out graph comparing our prediction with actual results looks like this:
This is a not so easy fix. We change our equation to y = (x^3)/3 - 2x^2 + 8x/3. This gives us the following graph:
This is not exact but it is close. If we look down the road, we can predict the following:
So if this is our investments, we should just ride it out because things look better down the road. If it is global temperatures, then hang on because things will get a lot hotter really quick.
When the next number comes in, it comes in as 0, exactly as our model predicted:
Surely, we are on the right track.
The next number, however, comes in as 1 rather then the 5 our model predicted.
Something is wrong again. If we look at our various model graphs, we can see that they end up going all over the place:
Clearly, while each of these graphs works for a bit, they all fail in the end. They all end up flying off on a tangent. This is even more clear when we look at the long term trajectories:
All of these graphs were based on the actual data, but they differ markedly in their projections (all of which turn out to be wrong in the long term). Remember that the extreme models accounted for almost the same range of data, but after a point made widely divergent predictions.
So, one take away is that the models, at some point, break down. We could make the models much more complicated and account for the first twenty points but they would then still go wildly wrong. The general point would remain. If you are looking at a fluctuating phenomenon and suddenly your model becomes monotonically increasing or decreasing (that is, it stops fluctuating) then that is the point where your model probably has broken down.
Labels:
Mathematics
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Herbert Donner (1930-2016)
This bit of sad news comes via Jack Sasson who got it from Wolfgang Zwickel, the authors are listed at the bottom:
Prof. Dr. Dr. Dr. h.c. Herbert Donner (1930-2016)
Am 28. April 2016 verstarb Prof. Dr. theol. Dr. phil. Dr. h.c. Herbert Donner im Alter von 86 Jahren in Kiel. Mit ihm verliert die Theologische Fakultät der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel einen ihrer profiliertesten Vertreter und einen international renommierten Wissenschaftler. Von 1980 bis zu seiner Emeritierung war er hier ordentlicher Professor für Altes Testament und Biblische Archäologie und amtierte zwischen 1985 und 1987 auch als Dekan der Fakultät. Zuvor hatte er seit 1963 als Professor für Altes Testament und Palästinakunde in Göttingen und seit 1968 in Tübingen gelehrt und geforscht.
Donner hatte in Leipzig eine umfassende theologische und altorientalistische Ausbildung erhalten und war dort mit einer Arbeit über die Verfassungs- und Verwaltungsgeschichte der eisenzeitlichen Kleinstaaten Israel und Juda zuerst zum Dr. theol., dann mit einer Arbeit über die keilschriftlichen Wirtschafts- und Verwaltungsurkunden des nordsyrischen Stadtstaates Alalah (Tell Açana) zum Dr. phil. promoviert worden. 1958 verließ er die Deutsche Demokratische Republik und habilitierte sich in Göttingen mit einer Arbeit über die Stellung der klassischen Propheten des 8. Jahrhunderts v.Chr. zur Außenpolitik der Könige von Israel und Juda. 1965 organisierte er die Finanzierung der Restaurierung der byzantinischen Mosaik-Landkarte in Madeba / Jordanien und wurde dafür - zusammen mit den beiden Restauratoren - vom griechisch-orthodoxen Patriarchen von Jerusalem zum "Ritter des Ordens der orthodoxen Kreuzträger vom Heiligen Grabe" ernannt.
In Kiel leitete er seit 1983 auch über seine Emeritierung hinaus bis ins Jahr 2010 die von der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft finanzierte Gesenius-Forschungsstelle, deren Ziel es war, das "Hebräische und aramäische Handwörterbuch über das Alte Testament von Wilhelm Gesenius" vollständig neu zu bearbeiten. Das Wörterbuch erschien zwischen 1987 und 2012 in sieben Lieferungen. 2013 konnte der Herausgeber zu seiner Freude das Erscheinen der einbändigen Studienausgabe erleben. Mit dem Wörterbuch leistete er einen grundlegenden Beitrag zur hebräischen Lexikographie. Seine zweibändige "Geschichte des Volkes Israel und seiner Nachbarn in Grundzügen", inzwischen in der 4. Auflage erschienen, gehört für die meisten Studierenden zur Pflichtlektüre, und vielen ist auch die Übersetzung der griechischen und lateinischen Pilgerberichte aus dem 4.-7. Jahrhundert ins Deutsche eine willkommene Arbeitsgrundlage. In seiner Eigenschaft als Vorsitzender des 1877 gegründeten Deutschen Vereins zur Erforschung Palästinas förderte er zwischen 1974 und 1992 entsprechende Untersuchungen und Publikationen. Die allgemeine Wertschätzung seiner Person kam auch darin zum Ausdruck, dass er nicht nur ordentliches Mitglied der Heidelberger Akademie der Wissenschaften, korrespondierendes Mitglied der Wissenschaftlichen Gesellschaft der J.-W. Goethe-Universität Frankfurt und des Deutschen Archäologischen Instituts war, sondern im Jahr 2000 mit dem Dr. theol. h.c. der Theologischen Fakultät der Universität Leipzig ausgezeichnet und zum Ehrenmitglied des Deutschen Vereins zur Erforschung Palästinas ernannt wurde. Seine Veröffentlichungen zeichnen sich durch umfassende Kenntnisse, nüchterne Urteile und einen unprätentiösen und klaren Stil aus. Seine ungewöhnlich vielfältige und ertragreiche wissenschaftliche Arbeit zur Geschichte und Kultur des antiken Palästinas ist mit ihm nun ans Ende gekommen.
Die Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel und ihre Theologische Fakultät werden sein Andenken in Ehren halten.
Ulrich Hübner,
Direktor des Instituts für Alttestamentliche Wissenschaft und Biblische Archäologie,
Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
Markus Saur,
Dekan der Theologischen Fakultät der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
The last conference paper I presented relied heavily on one of the standard reference compendiums that Prof. Dr. Dr. Dr. h.c. Donner produced, Kanaanäische und aramäische Inschriften. I would like to thank him for his good work. I am sorry that I was never able to do so in person.
Prof. Dr. Dr. Dr. h.c. Herbert Donner (1930-2016)
Am 28. April 2016 verstarb Prof. Dr. theol. Dr. phil. Dr. h.c. Herbert Donner im Alter von 86 Jahren in Kiel. Mit ihm verliert die Theologische Fakultät der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel einen ihrer profiliertesten Vertreter und einen international renommierten Wissenschaftler. Von 1980 bis zu seiner Emeritierung war er hier ordentlicher Professor für Altes Testament und Biblische Archäologie und amtierte zwischen 1985 und 1987 auch als Dekan der Fakultät. Zuvor hatte er seit 1963 als Professor für Altes Testament und Palästinakunde in Göttingen und seit 1968 in Tübingen gelehrt und geforscht.
Donner hatte in Leipzig eine umfassende theologische und altorientalistische Ausbildung erhalten und war dort mit einer Arbeit über die Verfassungs- und Verwaltungsgeschichte der eisenzeitlichen Kleinstaaten Israel und Juda zuerst zum Dr. theol., dann mit einer Arbeit über die keilschriftlichen Wirtschafts- und Verwaltungsurkunden des nordsyrischen Stadtstaates Alalah (Tell Açana) zum Dr. phil. promoviert worden. 1958 verließ er die Deutsche Demokratische Republik und habilitierte sich in Göttingen mit einer Arbeit über die Stellung der klassischen Propheten des 8. Jahrhunderts v.Chr. zur Außenpolitik der Könige von Israel und Juda. 1965 organisierte er die Finanzierung der Restaurierung der byzantinischen Mosaik-Landkarte in Madeba / Jordanien und wurde dafür - zusammen mit den beiden Restauratoren - vom griechisch-orthodoxen Patriarchen von Jerusalem zum "Ritter des Ordens der orthodoxen Kreuzträger vom Heiligen Grabe" ernannt.
In Kiel leitete er seit 1983 auch über seine Emeritierung hinaus bis ins Jahr 2010 die von der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft finanzierte Gesenius-Forschungsstelle, deren Ziel es war, das "Hebräische und aramäische Handwörterbuch über das Alte Testament von Wilhelm Gesenius" vollständig neu zu bearbeiten. Das Wörterbuch erschien zwischen 1987 und 2012 in sieben Lieferungen. 2013 konnte der Herausgeber zu seiner Freude das Erscheinen der einbändigen Studienausgabe erleben. Mit dem Wörterbuch leistete er einen grundlegenden Beitrag zur hebräischen Lexikographie. Seine zweibändige "Geschichte des Volkes Israel und seiner Nachbarn in Grundzügen", inzwischen in der 4. Auflage erschienen, gehört für die meisten Studierenden zur Pflichtlektüre, und vielen ist auch die Übersetzung der griechischen und lateinischen Pilgerberichte aus dem 4.-7. Jahrhundert ins Deutsche eine willkommene Arbeitsgrundlage. In seiner Eigenschaft als Vorsitzender des 1877 gegründeten Deutschen Vereins zur Erforschung Palästinas förderte er zwischen 1974 und 1992 entsprechende Untersuchungen und Publikationen. Die allgemeine Wertschätzung seiner Person kam auch darin zum Ausdruck, dass er nicht nur ordentliches Mitglied der Heidelberger Akademie der Wissenschaften, korrespondierendes Mitglied der Wissenschaftlichen Gesellschaft der J.-W. Goethe-Universität Frankfurt und des Deutschen Archäologischen Instituts war, sondern im Jahr 2000 mit dem Dr. theol. h.c. der Theologischen Fakultät der Universität Leipzig ausgezeichnet und zum Ehrenmitglied des Deutschen Vereins zur Erforschung Palästinas ernannt wurde. Seine Veröffentlichungen zeichnen sich durch umfassende Kenntnisse, nüchterne Urteile und einen unprätentiösen und klaren Stil aus. Seine ungewöhnlich vielfältige und ertragreiche wissenschaftliche Arbeit zur Geschichte und Kultur des antiken Palästinas ist mit ihm nun ans Ende gekommen.
Die Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel und ihre Theologische Fakultät werden sein Andenken in Ehren halten.
Ulrich Hübner,
Direktor des Instituts für Alttestamentliche Wissenschaft und Biblische Archäologie,
Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
Markus Saur,
Dekan der Theologischen Fakultät der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel
The last conference paper I presented relied heavily on one of the standard reference compendiums that Prof. Dr. Dr. Dr. h.c. Donner produced, Kanaanäische und aramäische Inschriften. I would like to thank him for his good work. I am sorry that I was never able to do so in person.
Labels:
Obituaries
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
Robert Bennett
Senator Bennett passed away today. That is sad.
I chanced to meet Senator Bennett a few years ago, after he had left office. It was a brief meeting. He was very gracious. I thanked him for his years of service. I told him that I thought he had been rather poorly treated by his party the way he was forced to leave office. He told me that it was one of the best things that could have happened to him. It allowed him to spend more time with his grandchildren. True to his word, he then excused himself to attend to his grandchildren. I admire someone (especially a politician) who can make his deeds match his words.
Labels:
Obituaries
Congratulations
Congratulations to Nathan Hawks. I know Nathan and am very pleased to see him garner this recognition.
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Ancient Israelites More Literate Than We Thought
This news item in the New York Times argues that ancient Israelites were more literate than previously thought. We went through this all last year. I pointed out that:
- the Hebrew Bible notes its historical sources,
- when those sources survive, they end up being accurately represented as sources,
- epigraphic sources indicate that Israelite scribes kept annals,
- the epipgraphic finds from ancient Israel indicates widespread Israelite scribes (with a number now noted for the eleventh century)
- the epigraphic finds indicate a professional and literate scribal class,
- the epigraphic finds enable a rough calculation of the amount of literary material in the country,
Labels:
Hebrew,
History,
Intellectual Issues
Thursday, March 24, 2016
What This Year’s Early Easter Date Tell Us about Early Christianity
The bright moon this morning provoked a conversation in
which my daughter asked a telling question that reveals a lot about early
Christianity.
The date of Easter is the first Sunday after the first full
moon after the Vernal Equinox. This year, the Vernal Equinox was March 20 (it
is often on March 21). The full moon was March 23. The Sunday following is
March 27. So we have an early Easter this year.
There is a logic to the date of Easter. Jesus was crucified
on Passover, which is the fourteenth of Nissan, which is the month of spring
(hence the Vernal Equinox). Nissan, like other months of the Jewish calendar,
is a lunar month starting on the new moon. The fourteenth is thus the date of
the full moon. The Resurrection was the Sunday following the crucifixion.
On the calendar that we use, the Roman calendar, the date of
Eastern changes from year to year. My daughters question was: “Didn’t they
record the date of the Resurrection?”
The answer is that that they did, but they recorded it in
the Jewish calendar, not the Roman calendar. The earliest Christians were all
Jews or converts from Judaism. It was only later that the Christians started
accepting converts from Gentiles, such as Greeks and Romans. So the early
Christians recorded the date of the Resurrection according to the date on the
Jewish lunar calendar, not the Roman solar calendar.
Starting in the second century, there was a controversy in
Christianity between those that wanted to celebrate Easter on the 14th of
Nissan (following the gospel of John) and those who wanted to celebrate it on
Sunday and so the Sunday following (following the gospel of Matthew). The
Easter controversy was not ostensibly settled until the fourth century.
There are only two Christian Holy Days that follow a Jewish
calendar, that thus go back to the earliest period of Christian history. Both
commemorate the Resurrection. Those Holy Days are Easter, and the Lord’s Day
(Sunday). All the other Christian Holy Days follow the Roman calendar (including
Christmas) and are thus later.
So, what we learn about early Christianity is that the
Resurrection was the only event commemorated; it was memorialized in two Holy
Days, Easter and the Lord’s Day. The dates of these events were recorded in the
Jewish calendar, which was the one that the earliest Christians used.
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